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J. Edward Anderson: The Complete Bibliography

The NewsCenter presents the following index of books, papers and courses by Dr. J. Edward Anderson, perhaps the leading contemporary theorist on PRT. Many of the books are available in libraries. Papers are available* on request from Dr. Anderson at jea.p.e.phd AT gmail.com, or by letter to:

5164 Rainier Pass NE,
Fridley, MN 55421 USA

Dr. Anderson's articles and papers on nuclear weapons and opposition to the MX missile program (1979-83) are shown in serif typeface

Note: Index contents were created by Dr. Anderson

Go to: 1950s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s

* Except "Deflection and Twist of a Curved Beam under Uniform Load," which is ©2001 Taxi 2000 Corp., and papers from Topics in the Design of PRT Systems which are available only by contract.


Archives | or Return to Innovative Transportation Technologies

Books, Papers and Professional Courses by J. Edward Anderson

"Deflections and Stresses in Solid-Plate Delta Wings," (with Hedgepeth and Stein), NACA Report No. 1131, 1953.

"An Analysis of Errors in Inertial Navigation Systems," Proc. Third National Conference on Military Electronics, Washington, D. C., June 1959.

"Effects of the Special Theory of Relativity on Unidirectional Motion under Constant Proper Acceleration," University of Minnesota, 1959.

"General Relativity and Time Dilation," Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1959. Solution to the problem of the Twin Paradox in General Relativity.

The Influence of Charge Separation and Current Inertia on Magnetohydrodynamic Shock Structure," American Rocket Society Annual Meeting, November 1962.

Magnetohydrodynamic Shock Waves, Cambridge: M. I. T. Press, 1963.

Reprinted as Tokyo University International Edition 1.
Translated into the Russian language and published by Atomizdat, Moscow, 1968.

"Shipboard Fire Control with Body-Mounted Gyros," Honeywell Military Products Group, January 1967.

"Efficient Design of Magnetohydrodynamic Pumps," American Society of Mechanical Engineers Paper No. 67-WA/ENER-4, 1967.

"Transpiration Cooling of a Constricted Electric-Arc Heater," (with E. R. G. Eckert), AIAA Journal, 5:4(1967):699-706.

"The Inverse Problem in Arc Physics," Physics of Fluids, 10:4(1967):894-896.

"Local Temperature Variations of a Transpiration-Cooled Wall Due to Radiant Heating," Journal of Heat Transfer, 90(1968):1146-1150.

"The Curvature and Stability of an Electric Arc in Crossflow," Progress in Heat and Mass Transfer, 2(1969):419-425.

"Stability of an Arc Column in Crossflow," ASME Paper No. 69-WA/HT-60, 1969.

"The Russia I Found," Astronautics and Aeronautics, Nov. 1969.

"Capacity of Small-Car Transit Systems," AIAA Journal, 7:9(1969):1821.

"The State of Urban Transportation," University of Minnesota, September 1970.

"Comparisons Between Fixed-Guideway Transit Concepts for Medium-Density Metropolitan Areas," (with J. A. Kieffer), Urban Technology Conference, New York City, May 24-26, 1971, AIAA Paper No. 711-518.

"Statement on reconversion from military to non-military production." Before the Subcommittee on Science, Research and Development of the Committee on Science and Astronautics, U. S. House of Representatives, June 1971, related to the Conversion Research and Education Act of 1971, H. R. 34, pp. 694-696.

Magnetogasdynamics of Thermal Plasma, Moscow: Energia, 1972.

"Morphology in Urban Transportation," Personal Rapid Transit, Audio Visual Library Services, University of Minnesota, 1972.

"Statement on the National Transportation Act of 1971." Hearing before the Committee on Commerce, United States Senate, 92nd Congress, Warren G. Magnuson, Chairman, March 16, 1972, pp. 148-150.

"Statement on a National Commitment to develop new forms of transit." Before the House Subcommittee on Transportation Appropriations, April 24, 1972, pp. 1409-1425.

"The Service Potential of Personal Rapid Transit," Conference of the Western Section of the Institute of Traffic Engineers, Portland, Oregon, July 11, 1972.

Personal Rapid Transit, Co-Ed., Audio Visual Library Services, University of Minnesota, 1972.

"Implementation of Personal Rapid Transit," ASCE National Transportation Engineering Meeting, Milwaukee, July 17-21, 1972, Preprint No. 1755.

Planning for Personal Rapid Transit, (contributor and editor), Center for Urban and Regional Affairs, University of Minnesota, December 1972.

"PRT: Urban Transportation of the Future?," The Futurist, 7:1:(1973):16-20.

"Some Fundamentals in the Design of Automated Network Transport Systems," Institute of Traffic Engineers, 43rd Annual Meeting Technical Papers, August 1973.

"Humanizing Urban Transportation Technology: The Personal Rapid Transit Concept," Professional Engineer, November 1973.

"A New Era in Urban Transportation," a sound color film strip, Audio Visual Library Services (AVLS), University of Minnesota, 1973.

Personal Rapid Transit II, Editor, AVLS, University of Minnesota, 1974.

"Theory of Design of PRT Systems for Safe Operation," 1973 International Conference on Personal Rapid Transit, May 1973, Personal Rapid Transit II, Audio Visual Library Services, University of Minnesota, January 1974.

"Statement on National Transportation Policy," Hearings before a Subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations, House of Representatives, 93rd Congress, John J. McFall, Chairman, March 6, 1974, pp. 267-292.

  1. Why should we have a National Transportation Policy?
  2. How should a National Transportation Policy be developed?
  3. What should a National Transportation Policy Contain?
  4. Future Conditions

"PRT", Environment, 16:3(1974):6-11.

"Dual-Mode, Captive-Vehicle PRT and Pallet Systems," First International Conference on Dual- Mode Transportation, Transportation Research Board, May 29-31, 1974.

"The 1975 International Conference on Personal Rapid Transit," Society of Automotive Engineers, February 1976.

"The Development of a Model for Analysis of the Cost Effectiveness of Alternative Transit Systems," Personal Rapid Transit III, Audio Visual Library Services, University of Minnesota, July 1976.

"Introduction: A Derivation of the PRT Concept," PRT III, AVLS, U of MN, 1976.

"The Selling of Rail Rapid Transit," a book review, Planning, September 1976.

"Cabintaxi: Urban Transport of the Future," Elevator World, 25:4(1977):16-25.

"Vehicle Fleet Costs," Advanced Transit News, 1:4(1977).

"Statement on Development of Cost-effective Automated Transit." Before the Senate Subcommittee on Transportation Appropriations, May 1977, pp. 1480-1497.

"The University of Minnesota in 500 Years," lead article in Update, Office of University Relations, University of Minnesota, September 1977.

"Life-Cycle Costs and Reliability Allocation in Automated Transit,"

High Speed Ground Transportation, 11:1(1977):1-18.

  1. Introduction
  2. Life-Cycle Cost vs. Reliability
  3. Minimization of Life-Cycle Cost
  4. Analysis of the Equation for Optimum MTBF
  5. An Example
  6. Conclusions
  7. Notation

"Automated Guideway Transit and the Revitalization of the Central Business District," Advanced Transit News, 1:7(1977).

Transit Systems Theory, Lexington Books, D. C. Heath and Company, Lexington, Mass. 1978
Forward by George Pastor, Associate Administrator for Technology Development and Deployment, UMTA

Chapter 1. Introduction
Chapter 2. Basic Performance Relationships
2.1 The Acceleration Profile
2.2 The Velocity Profile and Stopping Distance

2.3 Acceleration Power
2.4 Trip Time and Average Velocity
2.5 Time and Distance Loss due to Speed Reduction
2.6 Average Power Consumption
2.7 Summary

Chapter 3. Transitions from Straight to Curved Guideways
3.1 The Differential Equation for the Transition Curve
3.2 The Constant-Speed Spiral

3.3 A Right Angle Curve at Constant Speed
3.4 Transition to Off-Line Station at Constant Speed
3.5 The Constant Deceleration Spiral
3.6 The Lateral Response of a Vehicle due to a Sudden Change in the Curvature of the path.
3.7 Superelevation
3.8 Summary
Chapter 4. Performance Relationships for Specific Systems
4.1 Shuttle Systems
4.2 Station Throughput
4.3 Loop Systems
4.4 Line-Haul Systems
4.5 Network System
4.6 Summary
Chapter 5. Cost Effectiveness
5.1 Cost Equations
5.2. Equations for Cost Effectiveness
5.3 Cost Effectiveness of Bus Systems
5.4 Cost Effectiveness of Shuttles
5.5 Cost Effectiveness of Loop Systems
5.6 Cost Effectiveness of Line-Haul Systems
5.7 Cost Effectiveness of Guideway Networks
5.8 Summary
Chapter 6. Patronage Analysis
6.1 Relationship between Yearly, Daily, and Peak-Hour Patronage
6.2 Mobility
6.3 Required Precision of Patronage Estimates
6.4 Trip Generation
6.5 Trip Distribution
6.6 Mode Spit Analysis -- A Probability Argument
6.7 Mode Spilt Analysis -- the Logit Model
6.8 Factors that Influence Patronage
6.9 Summary
Chapter 7. Requirements for Safe Operation
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Requirements for Collision Avoidance
7.3 Constant Force, Constant-Displacement Shock Absorber
7.4 Criteria for Avoidance of Passenger Injury in Collisions
7.5 Collision with a Constraint Device in a Decelerating Vehicle
7.6 Safe Velocities of Collision between Vehicles
7.7 Oblique Collisions
7.8 Summary
Chapter 8. Life Cycle Cost and the Theory of Reliability Allocation
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Availability and Unavailability
8.3 Subsystems of an Automated Transit System
8.4 Classes of Failure
8.5 Passenger-Hours of Delay per Year and Unavailability
8.6 The Constrained Minimum Life Cycle Cost
8.7 Approximate Solution to the Problem of Reliability Allocation
8.8 Approximate Solution to the Problem of Minimization of Life Cycle Cost and
Reliability Allocation
8.9 Reliability Allocation in Sub-systems
8.10 Simultaneous Failures
8.11 Summary
Chapter 9. Redundancy, Failure Modes and Effects, and Reliability Allocation
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Redundancy
9.3 Subsystem and Classes of Failure
9.4 Vehicle Failures
9.5 Station-Entry Monitoring Equipment
9.6 Failures of Passenger-Processing Equipment in Stations
9.7 Merge-Equipment Failures
9.8 Diverge-Equipment Failures
9.9 Failures of Wayside Communications Equipment
9.10 Failures in Central-Control Equipment
9.11 Escape Mechanisms
9.12 Reliability Allocation
9.13 Summary
Chapter 10. Guideway Structures
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Optimum Cross Section Based on Bending Stress
10.3 Dynamic Loading --A Single Vehicle Crossing a Span
10.4 Dynamic Loading -- A Cascade of Vehicles Crossing a Span
10.5 Limit Value of Speed Based on Ride Comfort
10.6 Torsion
10.7 Plate Buckling
10.8 Plate Vibration
10.9 Optimum Span Length
10.10 Summary
Chapter 11. Design for Maximum Cost Effectiveness
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Guideways
11.3 Vehicle Fleet Costs
11.4 Propulsion and Braking
11.5 Standing versus Seated Passengers
11.6 Reliability
11.7 Dual Mode versus Captive Vehicles
11.8 Guideway Configurations
11.9 Control
11.10 Energy Conservation
11.11 Capacity Requirements

"Can Cities be Restructured for Transit," a book review, Planning, March 1978.

"Optimization of Transit Guideway Structures," International Conference of the Advanced Transit Association, Indianapolis, April 1978.

"Theory of Reliability Requirements," Int. Conf. of ATRA, April 1978.

"A Comparison of Alternative Loop Automated Transit Systems," Int. Conf. of ATRA, April 1978.

"Get Out on the Guideway and Walk," Advanced Transit News, 2:5(1978).

"Automated Guideway Transit in the Central City," Journal of Advanced Transportation (JAT), 13:3(1979):25-40.

Abstract: If automated guideway transit is to become a significant alternative transit mode, it must foremost be cost effective compared with alternatives. It must of course also be safe, reliable, environmentally acceptable, and energy efficient. Based on a series of systems analysis arguments, the paper summarizes how the basic characteristics of an AGT system of maximum cost effectiveness can be derived. But the main objective of the paper is to consider the application of such a system to a central city together with its primary and secondary impacts. The purpose of implementation of a cost-effective AGT system is considered.

"Technology, Society and the Future," Futurics, 3:3(1979)259-275.

The Golden Age of Science and Technology
The Age of Disillusionment
The Oil Age
The Dilemmas
Underlying Causes
Technical Solutions?
Barriers
The Outlook

"Breaking the Transit Dilemma through Innovation," a sound color slide presentation, AVLS, University of Minnesota, 1979.

"ATRA Presidential Welcoming Address," Proceedings of the International Symposium on Traffic and Transportation Technologies, Hamburg, June 18-20, 1979.

"A Note on Comparisons of Cost Effectiveness in Automated Guideway Transit Systems," JAT, 13:1(1979):81-86.

"The Probability of Destruction of a Missile Silo," Fall 1979. Distributed widely to Defense analysts to show why our Minuteman Missiles are not vulnerable to a first strike.

Formulae are derived for the probability of destruction of a missile silo by a thermonuclear bomb in terms of the bomb yield, destruct radius, bias error, and the CEP or Circle of Error Probability, which is the radius from the target in which half the incoming missiles would fall. The results are presented in terms of a chart that shows the miss probability as a function of the ratio of destruct radius to CEP for various values of the ratio of the bias error to the CEP. The Air Force considers that to be successful an attack against our 1000 Minuteman missiles must leave only 50 remaining. The chart shows that to achieve a miss probability of only 5% implies a degree of confidence in figures given on destruct radius and bias error much beyond practicality and thus that such an attack could easily leave more than half the Minutemen remaining instead of the predicted 50.

"The Properties of Intercontinental Ballistic-Missile Trajectories With a View to Determination of Errors," Fall 1979. Distributed widely to Defense analysts to show why our Minuteman Missiles are not vulnerable to a first strike.

An error analysis of ICBM trajectories is made that shows that to place a warhead within 300 feet of a target a quarter of the earth's circumference away required knowledge of the gravitational field to within an error of about one in a million, whereas without being able to fly the required trajectories, the best that can be assumed is a factor of about 100 worse. The conclusion reached is that the argument of vulnerability of ICBM silos has been greatly overstated. ICBMs can be expected to be effective against cities but not against hardened missile silos.

"Are We Vulnerable to a First Strike," Winter 1980. Circulated widely to many groups including the Gen. Brent Scowcroft Presidential Commission on Deployment of the MX missile System. Resulted in cancellation of the MX program.

During the 1970's the fear of vulnerability of the U.S. land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to a first strike by the Soviet Union increasingly became a dominant feature of U. S. strategic policy. By analyzing the problems of launching a major attach on the strategic forces of the United States from the viewpoint of the Soviet leadership, it is shown that such an attack cannot be expected to succeed and therefore that it cannot be assumed to be an option under serious consideration by the Soviet leadership. The perception that such an attack is possible can be diminished by widening the discussion of the problems discussed. The problems considered are the following: fratricide, reliability of equipment and personnel, missile-guidance accuracy, implications of the miss-probability chart, untestability, launch on warning, simultaneity, the effects of a first strike on the attacker, an attack scenario, the perception of a threat.

"Institutional Problems in the Development of Transit Innovations," Elevator World, 28:3(1980):40-50.

"Roots of the Dilemmas," 1980 Frontiers in Education Conference, ASEE/IEEE, Houston, October 1980.

The Dilemmas
The Roots
Laissez-faire
Usury
Income Insecurity
Short-Term Political Horizon
Natural Time Lags
Over-specialization
The Ingrained Concept of Abundance
Man over Nature vs. Man in Nature
Avarice
Megalomania
Fatalism

"Personal Rapid Transit," with R. A. MacDonald and R. D. Doyle, Environment, 22:8(1980):25- 37.

"Designing Transit to Minimize Urban Costs and Energy Use," Current Issues, January 1981.

"A Position Paper on the MX Missile System," International Peace Issues Forum, United Ministries in Higher Education, February 1981.

The paper concludes thus: "Now, when we are faced with high inflation and must devote massive resourced to alternative energy systems and to energy conservation, badly needed resources of materials, people, capital, and energy are to be siphoned from the economy based on dubious and highly theoretical arguments. We need better reasons for the MX than have been given. If better reasons are not forthcoming, the project should be canceled." (A few years later it was.)

"Fundamentals of Personal Rapid Transit," a book review, Transportation Research, 15A(1981):265-267.

"An Energy Saving Transit Concept for New Towns," Proceedings of the Conference on New Energy Conservation Technologies, International Energy Agency, Berlin, April 6-10, 1981, pp 2962-2968.

"An Energy Saving Transit Concept," JAT, 15:3(1981):127-141.

"First Strike: Myth or Reality," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 37:9(1981):6-11.

After considering may factors in the debate about the Soviet Union's first-strike capability, the paper concludes as follows: "I do not believe that an honest assessment of the probability of success of a first strike can produce high confidence in the results. But what I believe does not matter. What matters is what the Secretary of Defense and the President believe based on information handed to them. Since they have neither the time nor the training to understand all the factors involved, their decision will be intuitive and ideological. The moment they are led to believe that the collateral damage from the Soviet Union to the United States resulting from an American first strike is "acceptable" -- and assuming they really believe, as they publicly say, that the Soviets are close to first-strike capability -- in a future tense international situation the finger on the button will itch. Moreover, much of the decision process, because of the short time involved, will be computerized. The world indeed races dangerously closer to the ultimate holocaust."

"Missile Vulnerability--What You Can't Know," Strategic Review, 10:2(1982). The paper reviews the many factors that will compromise the accuracy of ICBMs aimed at hardened missile silos and concludes with the paragraph: "The kinds and numbers of weapons available today would seem to make it impossible to develop a consistent and rational war-fighting strategy aimed at a political objective other than suicide. In such a circumstance the Department of Defense faces enormous difficulties in its search for technical solutions to the problems of national security. Alfred Nobel wished he could 'produce a substance or a machine of such frightful efficacy for wholesale devastation that wars should thereby become altogether impossible.' I believe that this machine is with us now."

"Calculation of Performance and Fleet Size in Transit Systems," JAT, 16:3(1982)231-252. This paper provides a consistent, analytic approach to the calculation of the parameters needed to analyze the performance and cost of transit systems of all types including network systems. The method developed is a fundamental improvement over the method developed in Section 4.3 of Transit Systems Theory.

"Nuclear War Fighting Means First Strike," ASEE Annual Conference Proceedings, 1983.

The theoreticians in the Reagan Administration have concluded that the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) is an ineffective deterrent; in fact, they assert it is analogous to an individual who threatens to use suicide as an ultimate self-defense. The administration argues erroneously that it will resolve the dilemma of MAD by developing a nuclear-war-fighting capability. However, because of technical problems associated with the electromagnetic pulse (EMP), dust clouds, and decapitation attacks, the probability of fighting a prolonged nuclear war is remote, and, one must assume, the Reagan Administration knows it. The logical conclusion is that the administration is using the public argument of developing a nuclear-war-fighting capability to justify its real goal--creating a first-strike nuclear force.
It is more than coincidence that weapons deemed necessary for a prolonged nuclear war are perfectly suited for a first strike. If any nation develops a first-strike potential, the security of the world is threatened because it provokes others to develop first-strike potential as well, and thus escalates the arms race. Consequently, current U. S. defense policy is itself a threat to genuine security because it increases the risk of nuclear confrontation. The solution must lie in a more complete definition of security that stresses cooperation among nations rather than strictly equating national security with military power.

"Research and Development Efforts that Contributed to the Advancement of Automated Guideway Transit and to Personal Rapid Transit Development," University of Minnesota, 1984.

"Optimization of Transit-System Characteristics," JAT, 18:1(1984):77-111. In this paper a system-significant equation for the cost per passenger-mile is developed and from it, using available data, it is shown that the system that minimizes cost per passenger-mile has all the characteristics of the true PRT concept.

"A Practical Method for Solving Complex Non-Linear Differential Equations," Transit Systems Theory 2, 1984.

"A New System for Downtown Distribution," Metropolitan Conference on Public Transportation Research, University of Chicago, June 19, 1986.

"Automated Transit Vehicle Size Considerations," JAT, 20:2(1986):97-105. In this paper nine considerations that help the analyst determine the optimum size of an automated transit vehicle are discussed. These considerations are travel behavior, network operations, personal security, treatment of disabled riders, social considerations, safety, dependability, capacity, and cost.

"The Tradeoff between Linear and Rotary Propulsion in PRT Systems." Theory of New Transit Systems, 1987.

"A Note on Fare Policy in Personal Rapid Transit," JAT, 21:1(1987):81-84.

"The TAXI 2000 Personal Rapid Transit System," JAT, 22:1(1988):1-15.

"What Determines Transit Energy Use," JAT, 22:2(1988):108-132. In this paper the energy use of heavy rail, light rail, trolley bus, motor bus, van pool, dial-a-bus, auto, and PRT are compared. The energy required to overcome air drag, rolling resistance, and inertia; and the energy require for heating, ventilating, air conditioning, and construction are calculated. Calculation of these factors for the conventional transit systems is based on the averages given in federal data report "National Urban Mass Transportation Statistics"

"Technology Advances and Their Impacts on the Community," Wisconsin Community Development Society keynote speech, Madison, Wisconsin, October 8, 1990.

"The Taxi 2000 Personal Rapid Transit System," Transportation 2000 Conference, Aspen, Colorado, October 6-8, 1991.

"Dependability as a Measure of On-Time Performance of Personal Rapid Transit Systems," JAT, 26:3(1992):101-212. Dependability is defined in this paper as Person-Hours of Delay/Person-Hours of operation in a PRT system. Such a definition, while desired in conventional transit, cannot be measured without asking every patron the destination of his or her trip, which is impractical. The paper shows both how to calculate Dependability in advance of deployment of a PRT system and how to measure it while the system is in operation. The method provides the basis for precise contract language by which to measure on-time performance.

"Transportation Careers Move into the Future," Engineering Horizons, Fall 1992 Edition, p. 31.

"The Geometry of a Vehicle Moving in 3-D Space," Boston University, 25 pages, 1992. The Reference Frames and the Velocity Vector. Components of Acceleration. Maximum Speed based on Comfort Acceleration. The components of Jerk. The Differential Equations of the Spiral Transitions.
Plane Transition Curves at Constant Speed. The Transition Curve with no Region of Constant Curvature. The Transition Curve with a Region of Constant Curvature. The Roll-Rate Limit. Nonlinear Effects
Yaw-Pitch Coupling. Large Yaw Angles

"Fundamentals of Personal Rapid Transit." Conference on Automated People Movers, Las Colinas, Texas, March 18-21, 1993.

"Maglev Performance Simulation." With George Anagnostopoulos and Frank L. Raposa, 12th International Conference on Magnetically Levitated Systems and Linear Drives, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, May 19-21, 1993.

"Two-Week Course on PRT to Raytheon Engineers," Raytheon Company, Marlborough, Mass., Oct. 11-22, 1993.

""Introduction to Analysis and Planning of Personal Rapid Transit Systems." A course given at the Westin Hotel O'Hare, Rosemont, Illinois, November 19-21, 1993.

"Maglev Performance Simulator," Report of Contract No. DTRS-57-94-C-00004, U. S. Dept. of Transportation, February 19, 1994. The method developed in this report permits an analyst to run a high-speed vehicle or train over the hills and curves of a freeway right-of-way and to calculate trip time and energy use. The model is fully three-dimensional.

"The Birth of a Breakthrough in Urban Transportation," Distinguished Alumnus Lecture, North Park College and Theological Seminary, Chicago, Illinois, March 1, 1994. The author was invited to speak at North Park College as the 1994 Distinguished Alumnus Lecturer on his role in the development of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT), the first genuinely new urban transportation system to appear in a century. This Chapel Lecture describes his relevant technical experience, his search for meaning, his need for interdisciplinary project work, and the extraordinary circumstances and timing that led him to PRT as a new career, and that carried this work to the point where it has been taken over by a major corporation and a major urban transportation authority. The lecture ends with a challenge to young people to aim high and seek a noble cause of fundamental importance to mankind.

"Safe Design of Personal Rapid Transit Systems," JAT, 28:1(1994):1-15. The safety of PRT systems involves careful attention to all features of the design such as the use of a hierarchy of fault-tolerant redundant control system, bi-stable fail-safe switching, back-up power supplies, vehicle and passenger protection, and attention to the interaction of people with the system. Safety, together with reliability and adequate capacity, must be achieved while making the system economically attractive; hence techniques to achieve these goals at minimum life-cycle cost are primary in PRT design. The paper describes the relevant features in a new transit system and the principles of safe design required to develop it.

"Seminar on Personal Rapid Transit," Chalmers University, Gothenburg, Sweden, June 6-16, 1995.

"Synchronous or Clear-Path Control in Personal Rapid Transit," JAT, 30:3(1996):1-3. This paper derives an equation for the ratio of the maximum possible station flow to average line flow in a PRT or dual-mode system using fully synchronous control. It is shown that such a system is impractical except in very small networks.

"Short Course on Network Automated Guideway Transit Systems," Marriott Hotel, Minneapolis, Minnesota, November 21-22, 1996.

"The Historic Emergence and State of the Art of PRT Systems," Infrastructure, 2:1(1996):21-27.

"Essentials of Personal Rapid Transit," Infrastructure, 2:3(1997):8-17.

"Some Lessons from the History of PRT," Conference on PRT and Other Emerging Transportation Systems, Minneapolis, November 1996.

"Guideway Characteristics," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems, 1997. Guideways required to support and constrain moving vehicles are analyzed based on the results of dynamic analysis of vehicles moving on flexible spans. The analysis is applicable to systems in which small vehicles operate at a full range of speeds including speeds applicable to intercity travel. Specific results useful in the design of guideways of any cross sectional configuration are developed.

"Longitudinal Control of a Vehicle," JAT, 31:3(1997):237-247. Generally applicable formulae for the gain constants in a proportional plus integral controller required for stable control of the speed of any vehicle in terms of natural frequency, damping ratio, vehicle mass, and thruster time constant are derived. An example, based on a simulation of the controller and vehicle, is given. The theory shows that only speed and position feedback are needed. Acceleration feedback is unnecessary.

"Control of Personal Rapid Transit Systems," JAT, 32:1(1998). The problem of precise longitudinal control of vehicles so that they follow predetermined time-varying speeds and positions has been solved. To control vehicles to the required close headway of at least 0.5 sec, the control philosophy is different from but no less rigorous than that of railroad practice. The preferred control strategy is one that could be called an "asynchronous point follower." Such a strategy requires no clock synchronization, is flexible in all unusual conditions, permits the maximum possible throughput, requires a minimum of maneuvering and uses a minimum of software. Since wayside zone controllers have in their memory exactly the same maneuver equations as the on-board computers, accurate safety monitoring is practical. The paper discusses the functions of vehicle control; the control of station, merge, and diverge zones; and central control.

"Personal Rapid Transit: Matching Capacity to Demand," an Advanced Transit Association paper, February 1998. The paper gives a comprehensive discussion of the question of both required and obtainable capacity in PRT system based on both observation of the behavior of people and on theory. It is shown that once a network of PRT guideways is laid down rather than the few widely spaced lines of conventional rail system the required capacity of both lines and stations is remarkably modest, but that a modern PRT system will exceed the maximum practical throughput of most conventional rail systems.

"Effect of Redundancy on Failure Frequency in PRT Systems," Theory of New Transit Systems. In this paper the effect of redundancy on failure frequency is calculated in more detail than found in the author's 1978 textbook Transit System Theory.

"Simulation of the Operation of Personal Rapid Transit Systems." Computers in Railways VI, WIT Press, Boston, Southampton, 1998, 523-532. This paper describes a computer simulation program developed by the author to study the operation of personal rapid transit (PRT) systems of any size and configuration. The control scheme is asynchronous with maneuvers commanded by wayside zone controllers. The simulation runs on a PC, is accurate in every detail, and can be used to run an operational system, which would use dual-redundant computers on the vehicles, at wayside to manage specific zones, and in a central location to manage the flow of empty vehicles and to perform other system-wide functions. Some results are given.

"A Review of the State of the Art of Personal Rapid Transit." JAT, 34:1(2000). The paper begins with a review of the rational for development of personal rapid transit, the reasons it has taken so long to develop, and the process needed to develop it. Next the author shows how the PRT concept can be derived from a system-significant equation for life-cycle cost per passenger-mile as the system that minimizes this quantity. In the bulk of the paper the author discusses the state-of-the-art of a series of technical issues that had to be resolved during the development of an optimum PRT design. These include capacity, switching, the issue of hanging vs. supported vehicles, guideways, vehicles, control, station operations, system operations, reliability, availability, dependability, safety, the calculation of curved guideways, operational simulation, power and energy. The paper concludes with a listing of the implications for a city that deploys an optimized PRT system.

"An Optimized Personal Rapid Transit System." APM Proceedings, July 2001.

"Failure Modes and Effects Analysis and Minimum Headway in Taxi 2000." August 6, 2001. How to design a PRT guideway: safety as it relates to damage by external forces (trees, cars, trucks, high winds, etc.); how the system monitors and controls vehicle location and speed, and avoids collisions; function and reliability of components; designing system to avoid different types of sudden stops/collisions.

"Deflection and Twist of a Curved Beam under Uniform Load," Transit Systems Theory (2), November 2001. In this paper an exact equation is derived for the deflection of a curved beam clamped at the ends and subject to a uniform load. The method used was developed by S. Timoshenko based on strain-energy considerations.

"Response to "Personal Rapid Transit -- Cyberspace Dream Keeps Colliding with Reality," found on www.lightrailnow.org" April 2004. An 11-page rebuttal.

"The SkyWeb Express Personal Rapid Transit System," Urban Transit XI, WIT Press, Southampton, Boston, 2005, 113-121.

"The Design, Operation, and Benefits of an Optimized PRT System," Automated People Mover Conference, Orlando, 2005.

"The Future of High-Capacity PRT", Advanced Transit Association Conference, Bologna, Italy, 2005.

High-capacity personal rapid transit (HCPRT) is a concept that has been evolving for over 50 years. Notwithstanding attempts to kill it, it has kept emerging because in optimum form it has the potential for contributing significantly to the solution of fundamental problems of modern society including congestion, global warming, dependence on a dwindling supply of cheap oil, and most recently terrorism. The future of HCPRT depends on careful design starting with carefully thought-through criteria for the design of the new system and of its major elements. Many people have contributed importantly to the development of PRT and the author regards the work during the 1970s of The Aerospace Corporation to be by far the most important, without which this author is certain that he could not have maintained interest in the field.
After deriving the HCPRT concept, the author reviews work on the important factors that the design engineer needs to consider in contributing to the advancement of HCPRT, so that after shaking out the good from the not so good features of the basic concept cities, airports, universities, medical centers, retirement communities, etc. can comfortably consider deploying HCPRT systems. We look forward to the day when universities will regularly teach courses on HCPRT design and planning and when a number of competent firms will be manufacturing HCPRT systems. HCPRT is close to moving to mainstream and can bring about a brighter future for mankind.

"Permissible Time between Vehicles Leaving a Station." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"Analysis of a Bi-Stable Switch." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"The Optimum Switch Position." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"Conditions for a Vehicle to Tip." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"Three-Dimensional Guideways." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"Coasting Tests." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"LIM Clearance in Vertical Curves." Transit Systems Theory (2), 2006

"Flexing of the Running Surface and Ride Comfort." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"Passenger Acceleration and Jerk due to a Guideway Slope Discontinuity." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"Calculation of the Structural Properties of the Guideway." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006

"Dynamic Analysis of the Switch-Rail Entry Flare." Theory of New Transit Systems, 2006.

"How Innovation can make Transit Self-Supporting," The Conference of Georgist Organizations, July 19-23, 2006, O'Hare Radisson Hotel, Chicago.

  1. Introduction
  2. The Problems to be addressed
  3. Rethinking transit from fundamentals
  4. Derivation of the new system
  5. Off-line stations are the key breakthrough
  6. The attributes of high-capacity PRT
  7. The optimum configuration
  8. Is high capacity possible with small vehicles?
  9. System features needed to achieve maximum throughput reliably and safely
  10. How does a person use a PRT system?
  11. Will PRT attract riders?
  12. Status
  13. Economics of PRT
  14. Land savings
  15. Energy savings
  16. Benefits for the riding public
  17. Benefits for the community
  18. Reconsidering the problems
  19. Significant PRT activity
  20. Development strategy

"Comparison of the weight per unit length of a pipe guideway with a truss guideway," 2007. Google Document.

"How to Design a PRT Guideway," 2009. Google Document

The following papers, developed in 2006, relate to development of PRT and will be made available under contract.

"Permissible Time between Vehicles Leaving a Station," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Analysis of a Bi-Stable Switch," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"The Optimum Switch Position," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Conditions for a Vehicle to Tip," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Three-Dimensional Guideways," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Guideway Characteristics," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Coasting Tests," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"LIM Clearance in Vertical Curves," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Flexing of the Running Surface and Ride Comfort," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Vertical Acceleration of a Vehicle due to a Slope Discontinuity," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Calculation of the Structural Properties of the Guideway," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"Dynamic Analysis of the Switch-Rail Entry Flare," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"PRT Control," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Quantitative layout of a PRT network including properties needed for vehicles and passengers.
List of constant values for the system. Programs to calculate and plot the system.

"Setup of Control Zones," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Design criteria. Hardware required for control. Equation for minimum distance between branch points.
Control Strategy. Explanation of Control Zones.

"Speed & Position vs. Time," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Derives code to calculate speed and position vs. time for acceleration to line speed, stop in given distance, slip given amount, speed change, and emergency stop.

"The Vehicle Controller," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Block diagram of controller. Code for simulating vehicle controller including all speed/distance vs. time profiles.

"Positioning of Vehicles and their Movement" Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Required number of vehicles. Initial vehicle placement. Vehicle movement. When can a vehicle leave a station? Resolving a merge conflict. A diverge point. Entering and moving through a station.

"Additional Code needed to Operate a PRT Simulation," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

The demand matrix. Generation and Processing of Passengers.

"Equations for Command Point Positions," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Switch, Deceleration, Diverge, and Merge Command Points

"Structure of a PRT Control System," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Functions of vehicle, zone, and central computers. Description of the physical system to be simulated.

"The superelevation angle and the horizontal acceleration," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Derives formula for horizontal acceleration with superelevation.

"The Transition to an Off-Line Station," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Generally applicable differential equation for the transition curve. Solution with constant speed. Equations for constant-speed transition. The transition to an off-line station. Limits. Quarter and half point values.

Transition with variable speed. The Curvature. The Slope of the Transition Curve. The Transition Curve. The Length of the Transition. The Station Speed. The Maximum Slope of the Transition Curve. Solution for large lateral displacement. Collection of the Equations for the Transition. Calculation of the Speed into a Station. How does the Station Throughput change with Station Speed? A Program to Compute the Transition. Numerical Solution for the Transition for Arbitrary Speed Profile.

"Notation for Successive Branching," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

"The Permissible On-Line Deceleration into an Off-Line Station," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Deceleration during constant negative jerk. Headway sacrificed during constant-jerk motion. Headway sacrificed during constant-deceleration phase. Total headway sacrificed. The maximum on-line distance traveled during deceleration. Solving for lost headway. Curves of on-line deceleration vs. speed and headway sacrificed.

"Stopping Distance vs. Transition Length," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Derives the relationship between stopping distance and the transition length.

"Equations to compute a direction change in a horizontal or vertical plane." Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

The Governing Differential Equations. Calculation of the Slope of the Curve. Calculation of the Coordinates of the Curve in the Region of Positive Jerk. The Limit Condition for a Section of Constant Curvature. Calculation of the Coordinates of the Curve in the Region of Constant Curvature. Calculation of the Coordinates of the Curve in the Region of Negative Jerk. A Program for Calculating the Curve in Local Coordinates

"Vertical Curves," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Specializes the equations for vertical curves as a superposition over horizontal curves, which is permissible from the results of the paper "The Geometry of a Vehicle Moving in 3-D Space."

"The Program of Calculations Required to provide data to Operate PRT Control," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Universal constants. Apex data. Station data. Demand matrix. Branch data. Compute azimuth, direction change, curve properties, straight sections, start coordinates, station data, guideway coordinates, jump points, main arc lengths at jump points, branch-point apexes, distance of branch-command points from the branch points, station Command-Point distances from the branch-point ahead. Load vehicles. Compute station-to-station distances and the number of upstream station past branch points. Definitions of the arrays used in the simulation program.

"The PRT Control Program," Topics in the Design of PRT Systems

Generating, loading, and disembarking passengers.
The Command Points and Actions

Command Line Speed, Reset On Station Exit, Diverge Control, Merge Control, Switch At Station Switch Point, Decelerate to Berth, Advance In Station, Call Empty Vehicles, Speed Change, Emergency Stop.

Additional Routines needed in then Simulation

Calculate Maneuvers, Up-Date Times, Power and Energy



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