©2002 Get On Board!PRT
By D.S. Gow
It's difficult to figure a cost for any fixed-guideway system. To do a good estimate
certain things need to be known: the number of miles in the system, the number of stations,
etc. But before those things can be determined there's usually a great deal of heated
discussion surrounding which neighborhoods will be lucky (or unlucky) enough to have a
light rail line run through them, and which districts will have a depot plopped down in
their midst. Only then can you multiply mileage and number of stations by X millions
of dollars and project a total cost.
Excellent cost estimates exist for the 12.84-mile Skyloop PRT project
which had been proposed for Cincinnati in 2001. For that project a detailed capital
cost plan had been created, listing everything from the number of vehicles, miles of
guideway, and number of support posts, all the way down to costs of right of way,
utility relocation, and construction of a maintenance facility. This exercise will
use Skyloop's average cost per mile figure, $8.52 million, as a basis, as well as make
use of its various unit costs as needed.
But what of mileage? To estimate the cost of a Seattle PRT system, we at least need
to know where the guideway will go. But to make a guess about which streets will get
guideway, and where stations will be sited, would create a cost estimate seriously open
to questioning. A real-world guideway alignment acceptable to the general public would
undoubtedly differ from any expert projection or educated guess. Mileage would differ,
numbers of stations would differ, thus throwing off the total cost estimate.
This is why this exercise will not attempt to impose a guideway network onto Seattle's
topography, as fun as that might be. Instead, we will create a homogenous, hypothetical
city with the same land area and average population density as Seattle. It will be
perfectly square, and featureless, and it will be called elttaeS. And we will
draw a perfect north-south/east-west guideway grid upon it.
Setting groundrules
Part One: Physical Characteristics. Topographically, Seattle is a north-south
hourglass of land, with Puget Sound to the west and Lake Washington to the east. It has
six major hills, is dotted with parks and greenbelts, is traversed by a major ship canal,
and has two large lakes. A river flows in from the south and empties into the Sound. But
statistically, the following is Seattle too:
| Total area: | 91.5 sq. mi.
|
| Parkland: | 9.68 sq. mi.
|
| Water: | 3.07 sq. mi.
|
| Land Area: | 78.75 sq. mi.
|
We can consolidate all the water and land into easier-to-manage blocks. Thus, where gray=land, green=parks, and blue=water, "Seattle" can be expressed graphically as:
| elttaeS
|
|---|
|
|
|
|
| Land: 8.87 mi x 8.87 mi | |
|
We can now create a PRT system which will give us an idea of what size a
network needs to be to serve the real Seattle's populated area-- without
having to guess about what routing would be like in the real world.
Part Two: Units of the PRT system.
Guideway. In computing guideway mileage, we begin with the observation
that the PRT network need not go to the exact edge of the city-- it only needs
to get to within 1/4 mile, the typical station service radius. Thus, the outer
edge of the PRT network will be 8.87-(.25 x 2)=8.37 miles on a side, and the
mileage of mainline north-south guideway can be calculated as--
| # of N-S mainline guideways: | 8.37/.5 mi=16.74
|
| # of whole mainline guideways: | 16
|
| Actual guideway spacing: | 8.37/16=.523 mi
|
| N-S mainline guideway miles: | 8.37 x 16= 133.9 mi
|
| Therefore, E-W mainline guideway miles: | 133.9 mi
|
| Total mainline guideway miles in system: | 267.8 mi
|
| Station siding guideway (.15 miles of siding per mile): | 267.8 x .15=40.2 miles
|
| Total guideway miles: | 267.8+40.2= 308 miles
|
Graphically, the network can be represented on our diagram of elttaeS as follows:
Stations, land. There are two ways to determine the
number of stations:
1. As a function of mainline guideway mileage, the rule is one station
every 1/2 mile. So the number of stations is easily determined with the calculation:
267.8 miles x 2=535.6
2. As a function of average number stations needed to serve a square mile.
In the following illustration, the square is one square mile, and each circle (1/4
mi radius) and portion of a circle describes the service area of a station.
Adding up the circles & parts of circles results in a count of 4 stations. So,
to serve 8.372=70 square miles you need 4 x 70=280 stations. We will use
this figure, as the goal of the PRT system is to cover square mileage.
A least-cost strategy will be assumed for siting
stations-- wherever possible co-locating them on the site of existing public uses such
as fire stations, branch libraries and other public buildings, schools, and on the
edges of parks. It is also expected that a number of stations would have part of
their costs shared by private developers-- for example, a mall owner which would
see an advantage to having PRT bringing shoppers right to the front door. Perhaps
deals could be arranged, with the PRT company/agency paying for the station, with
the land privately donated.
Vehicles. Skyloop costs included a
vehicle of an initial cost of $25,911, 39 vehicles per system mile, for a total of
500. Thus, a 308 mile system results in a total of 39 x 308=12,012. This is clearly
too many, and we will adjust it shortly.
Support. The Skyloop estimate includes
realistic projections for such items as right of way, power, a number of bridge
crossings, utility relocation, and design. Thus, for this exercise they do not
need to be computed separately. Guideway is mounted on posts in public right of
way, purchase of land on which to erect guideway will be the exception rather than
the rule.
Part Three: Preliminary cost total.
Up front, we can multiply Skyloop's $8.52 million/mile estimate times 308
elttaeS miles for a total of $2.624 billion. But we need to make some adjustments:
Adjustments.
Station siding. Above we estimated 40.2 miles of siding. But then we
calculated 280 stations-- resulting in 758 feet of siding per station.
Intuitively this is a little too much. Instead, we'll assume 100 feet per
acceleration and deceleration section, and 12 feet per station berth. (For
comparison, consider that a typical city lot is about 40 ft. wide.) Also
assuming a rough average of 3 berths per station, and the total is 236 feet
of siding per station, or 12.52 miles for all 280 stations. Guideway by
itself in Skyloop was $2.27 million/mile ($362/ft) for guideway and support
posts. Thus, we can deduct 27.7 miles of siding and $62.9 million from the
estimate. Total guideway mileage is now 308-27.7= 280.3.
Number of vehicles. Above we showed how the Skyloop vehicle fleet,
when multiplied to the size of a 308 mile system, results in a 12,012-vehicle
fleet. As an alternative, we will use a fleet size of 5,000 Taxi 2000 vehicles,
which could have a capacity of over 39,000 trips per hour (as discussed in the
essay on Capacity). So, the number of
vehicles can be reduced by 7,012, at a cost saving of (7012 x 25911)= $181,687,932.
Station cost. Skyloop's 30 planned stations accounted for $11,156,012
of the total $109.44 million capital cost estimate. This breaks down as:
$281,800 for each of 21 free-standing stations; $563,600 for each of 7 stations
attached to existing buildings; $646,506 for each of two "storage barn" stations.
For now we will ignore the storage stations. Applying these costs directly to the
elttaeS context leads to a cost of [(280/28)x 9,863,000]= $98,630,000.
In adjusting this cost, we will first look at the
costs of one station, which assumes 3 berths:
| Touch-screen map | 1 | $2,000
|
| Ticket ATMs | 2 | 90,000
|
| Ticket readers | 3 | 9,000
|
| Elevator | 1 | 70,000
|
| CCTV/communications | 1 | 9,000
|
| Lighting | 1 | 1,800
|
| Structure & foundation | 1 | 100,000
|
| Total | $281,800
|
In the real world, not all stations would have
3 berths. We will adjust costs for an assortment of differently-berthed stations as:
| Item | 1 berth | 2 berths | 3 berths | 6 berths | 12 berths
|
|---|
| Touch-screen map | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $4,000 | $8,000
|
| Ticket ATMs | 45,000 | 45,000 | 90,000 | 135,000 | 360,000
|
| Ticket readers | 3,000 | 6,000 | 9,000 | 18,000 | 36,000
|
| Elevator | 70,000 | 70,000 | 70,000 | 70,000 | 70,000
|
| CCTV/communications | 9,000 | 9,000 | 9,000 | 9,000 | 9,000
|
| Lighting | 1,800 | 1,800 | 1,800 | 3,600 | 7,200
|
| Structure & foundation | 80,000 | 90,000 | 100,000 | 130,000 | 190,000
|
| Total | $210,800 | $223,800 | $281,800 | $369,600 | $680,200
|
Next, we will allocate the elttaeS network's
280 stations as follows:
| Type | % | # | Application | Hourly cap.* @5/min/berth
|
|---|
| 1 berth stations | 35% | 98 | Low-density neighborhood | 29,400
|
| 2 berth stations | 10% | 28 | Med-density neighborhood | 16,800
|
| 3 berth stations | 35% | 98 | Hi-density neighborhood, sm activity center | 88,200
|
| 6 berth stations | 10% | 28 | Downtown, large activity center | 50,400
|
| 12 berth stations | 10% | 28 | Special (Boeing, Univ. of WA, stadiums) | 100,800
|
| Total berths: 952 | 280 stations | 285,600
|
*departures and arrivals
Finally, our total station costs are:
| Type | # | Unit | Total
|
|---|
| 1 berth stations | 98 | $210,800 | $20,658,400
|
| 2 berth stations | 28 | 223,800 | 6,266,400
|
| 3 berth stations | 98 | 281,800 | 27,616,400
|
| 6 berth stations | 28 | 369,600 | 10,348,800
|
| 12 berth stations | 28 | 680,200 | 19,045,600
|
| Total | 280 | | $83,935,600
|
Thus, we can deduct ($98,630,000-$83,935,600)=
$14,694,400 from the preliminary estimate.
Network periphery. It is also not necessary for the edge of the network
to be a straight line, the requirement only is that the guideway reach stations
that have the edge within their service area. The most efficient way to do this
is remove every other segment along the periphery. Thus, the northwest corner of
the network would look like this:
Since each segment is .523 mi. (the guideway spacing) the amount of guideway
removed is [(.523 x 7) x 4]= 14.6 miles, a deduction of ($2.27 mil/mi x 14.6)=
$33.14 million. Total guideway mileage is now 280.3-14.6= 265.7 miles.
Guideway support posts. The Skyloop estimate included $4.67 million/mile
for posts & foundations which hold up the guideway. This number was based on
spacing the supports 60 feet apart (88 posts/mile, $4,135/post). However,
subsequently Taxi 2000 Corp. determined that the supports could be spaced 90 feet
apart and still do the job. So, the eltteaS network costs can be reduced by
[88-(5280/90)]x 4,135= $121,293/mile, or (265.7 x 121,293)= $32.2 million over
the whole system.
Central facility/storage. Skyloop planned a 7000 sq. ft., $843,000
facility to house its control center and central maintenance/repair operations.
This cost is $65,654 for each of Skyloop's 12.84 miles, or $20.2 million if
we use the same rate for the much larger elttaeS system. Instead, we will
assume a elttaeS facility four times the size and cost: 28,000 sq. ft.,
$3.4 million. This means we can deduct another ($20.2 million - $3.4
million)= $16.8 million.
Vehicle storage. Skyloop had the ability to store 317 vehicles (63%
of the fleet) during low demand periods, such as late nights and early mornings.
It should be noted at this point that "storage" in PRT has a completely
different meaning than in a bus, light rail or monorail system. In conventional
transit, nearly entire fleets of huge vehicles must be regularly housed during
times when few runs are scheduled. In PRT, because service is on-demand most
vehicles are stored in the stations, waiting for passengers-- they are stored
but in-service. Above we set the size of the fleet at 5,000 vehicles and the
number of station berths at 952. What about vehicles in use? King County's average
hourly transit demand (1998) is about 13,000, let's assume a demand in the middle
of the night of 2,500 riders per hour. Also assuming a leisurely 3 trips per hour,
2,500 riders/hr could be served by 834 PRT vehicles.
So far we've accounted for 952 vehicles stored in
the system and 834 in use. Let's also assume a storage capacity of 500 at the
central facility. That leaves a need to store 2,714. What do you really need to
store 8-feet-long PRT vehicles for a few hours? All you really need is to park
them on siding. Skyloop planned two $646,506 storage stations, merely siding
with some type of awning to shelter the vehicles from the elements, with a
capacity of about 120 vehicles each. Instead, let's assume short sections of
storage siding scattered around the system, totaling (2714 x 8ft)=21,712 ft.
We can now remove the Skyloop storage cost component from our estimate:
$50,350/mile, $15.5 million for 308 miles, and replace it with
(21,712 x 362)+[21712 x ((4135 x 59)/5280)]=$8.86 million worth of siding.
This is a net reduction of $6.6 million
Part Four: Adjusted cost total.
Cross your fingers:
| Siding adjustment | -62.9 million
|
| #vehicles adjustment | -181.7 million
|
| Station adjustment | -14.7 million
|
| Periphery adjustment | -33.14 million
|
| Support posts adjustment | -32.2 million
|
| Central facility adjustment | -16.8 million
|
| Vehicle storage adjustment | -6.6 million
|
| Total Adjustments | -$348 million
|
| Preliminary Total | $2,624.0 million
|
| Adjusted Total | $2,276 million/ $2.28 billion
|
Sure-- it's a lot of money. But compare it to the light rail and monorail systems
being planned for Seattle:
| Light rail | $2.1 billion
|
| Monorail | $.97-$1.74 billion
|
| Total | $3.07-$3.84 billion
|
Each of these systems will only serve narrow 14-mile corridors. Access to each
will be convenient only for those near the 16-18 monorail stations and 13-14 light
rail stations. In this exercise we've hypothesized a PRT system which will serve
ALL of Seattle with on-demand, nonstop service among 280 stations. Which is truly the better deal?
The author has a degree in Policy Analysis from the University of Washington
Graduate School of Public Affairs (now known as The Evans School).
Get on board!
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